Josh Allen
BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
Game log against Over 30.5
70%7 of 10L10
Over 30.5 Passing Attempts cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 22.4–37.7 passing attempts.
What's different on Monday
Over 30.5 · facts from past games, not a pickDefense vs quarterbacks
MIN allow 29.0 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks: 27th most of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 28.7 attempts · 2026: 29.3 (7 games)
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 vs BAL
Game lines
BUF −3.5 · total 45.5 (7 sportsbooks)
BUF's games this season closed at 51.9 on average (7 games)
Splits
Over 30.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 30.5
- Average
- 31.4
- +0.9 vs line
- Median
- 33
- +2.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 54%
- at −117
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 51%
- estimate · fair −106
Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −106, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −5603 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −2783 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −1553 books | — | 7/10 | |
| −1175 books | −1134 books | 7/10 | |
| +1123 books | — | 6/10 | |
| +1803 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +2853 books | — | 1/10 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 30.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 30.5 | Under 30.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle3 min ago | −114Best | −114 |
| Bally Bet3 min ago | −117 | — |
| betPARX3 min ago | −117 | −112 |
| BetRivers3 min ago | −117 | −113 |
| Bovada2 min ago | −125 | −105Best |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 11:01 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
30.5−114 → −117 since first seen