Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills · QB · #17

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM

Over Under20.5

Under 20.5 Completions, typical price −1105 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Under 20.5 Completions hit in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

vs PHI, 2025-12-28: 23, missed, 35 attempts
at JAX, 2026-01-11: 28, missed, 35 attempts
at DEN, 2026-01-17: 25, missed, 39 attempts
at HOU, 2026-09-13: 20, hit, 29 attempts
vs DET, 2026-09-17: 20, hit, 31 attempts
vs LAC, 2026-09-27: 16, hit, 26 attempts
vs NE, 2026-10-04: 23, missed, 33 attempts
at LAR, 2026-10-12: 12, hit, 19 attempts
at LV, 2026-10-18: 23, missed, 33 attempts
vs BAL, 2026-11-01: 21, missed, 34 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 20.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 13.3–26.2 completions.

What's different on Monday

Under 20.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

MonDefense vs quarterbacks
MIN allow 16.3 completions a game to quarterbacks: the fewest of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 28.7 attempts · 2026: 29.3 (7 games)
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 vs BAL
Game lines
BUF −3.5 · total 45.5 (8 sportsbooks)
BUF's games this season closed at 51.9 on average (7 games)

Splits

Under 20.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 20.5

Average: 21.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 22; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −110
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −108

Research, not a pick. At −107 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −108, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6253 books	—	2/10
−1823 books	—	2/10
−1215 books	−1103 books	4/10
+1203 books	—	5/10
+2353 books	—	8/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 20.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 20.5 Completions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 20.5	Under 20.5
betPARX4 min ago	−121	−107Best
Bovada4 min ago	−120	−110
Pinnacle4 min ago	−114Best	−114
Bally Bet4 min ago	−121	—
BetRivers4 min ago	−122	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:55 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

20.5

−114 → −110 since first seen