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Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills · QB · #17

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
OverUnder20.5
Under 20.5 Completions, typical price −1145 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 20.5

40%4 of 10L10

Under 20.5 Completions hit in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

  1. vs PHI, 2025-12-28: 23, missed, 35 attempts
  2. at JAX, 2026-01-11: 28, missed, 35 attempts
  3. at DEN, 2026-01-17: 25, missed, 39 attempts
  4. at HOU, 2026-09-13: 20, hit, 29 attempts
  5. vs DET, 2026-09-17: 20, hit, 31 attempts
  6. vs LAC, 2026-09-27: 16, hit, 26 attempts
  7. vs NE, 2026-10-04: 23, missed, 33 attempts
  8. at LAR, 2026-10-12: 12, hit, 19 attempts
  9. at LV, 2026-10-18: 23, missed, 33 attempts
  10. vs BAL, 2026-11-01: 21, missed, 34 attempts
Under hitMissedThe 20.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 13.3–26.2 completions.

What's different on Monday

Under 20.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • MonDefense vs quarterbacks

    MIN allow 16.3 completions a game to quarterbacks: the fewest of 32

    7 games

  • Pass attempts

    Last 3: 28.7 attempts · 2026: 29.3 (7 games)

  • Rest

    7 days off since Nov 1 vs BAL

  • Game lines

    BUF −3.5 · total 45 (7 sportsbooks)

    BUF's games this season closed at 51.9 on average (7 games)

Splits

Under 20.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 20.5

Average
21.1
+0.6 vs line
Median
22
+1.5 vs line
Hit rate
40%
4 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −114
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Our chance
52%
estimate · fair −109

Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −109, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−5303 books—2/10
−1653 books—2/10
−1135 books−1143 books4/10
+1303 books—5/10
+2503 books—8/10
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 20.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 20.5 Completions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 20.5Under 20.5
Bovada5 min ago−120−110Best
Pinnacle6 min ago−114−114
betPARX6 min ago−112Best−117
Bally Bet6 min ago−112Best—
BetRivers6 min ago−113—
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 2:30 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

20.5

No move since first seen

Josh Allen's full game log and splits