Jonathan Taylor
DAL @ IND · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
Game log against Over 86.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 86.5 Rush+Rec Yards cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 40.7–127.8 rush+rec yards.
What's different on Sunday
Over 86.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Daniel Jones led IND in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 86.5 with Jones at quarterback: 14 of 20; with another IND quarterback: 14 of 25
Defense vs running backs
DAL allow 144.5 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 6th most of 32
8 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 19.7 carries + targets · 2026: 22.4 (8 games)
Target share: 13% last 3 games · 12% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at JAX
Splits
Over 86.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 86.5
- Average
- 93.5
- +7 vs line
- Median
- 90.5
- +4 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 51%
- estimate · fair −105
Research, not a pick. At −114 the price is worse than our fair −105, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | 6/10 | |
| −1141 book | −1141 book | 5/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 5/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook at 86.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 86.5 | Under 86.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel2 min ago | −114Best | −114Best |
Prices as of 2:27 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
86.589.5 → 86.5 since first seen