Jonathan Taylor

Indianapolis Colts · RB · #28

Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1065 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Daniel Jones led IND in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 2.5 with Jones at quarterback: 12 of 20; with another IND quarterback: 5 of 19
Defense vs running backs
DAL allow 4.3 receptions a game to running backs: 17th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 4 targets · 2026: 3.9 (8 games)
Target share: 13% last 3 games · 12% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at JAX

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Research, not a pick. At −106 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −103, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−18001 book	—	10/10
−3054 books	—	9/10
−1065 books	−1253 books	5/10
+2204 books	—	2/10
+4504 books	—	0/10
+9504 books	—	0/10
+12001 book	—	0/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Prices as of 2:02 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

2.5

Over: No move since first seen