Jonathan Taylor
DAL @ IND · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
Game log against Over 83.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 83.5 Rush+Rec Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 40.7–127.8 rush+rec yards.
What's different on Sunday
Over 83.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Daniel Jones led IND in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 83.5 with Jones at quarterback: 15 of 20; with another IND quarterback: 15 of 24
Defense vs running backs
DAL allow 144.5 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 6th most of 32
8 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 19.7 carries + targets · 2026: 22.4 (8 games)
Target share: 13% last 3 games · 12% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at JAX
Splits
Over 83.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 83.5
- Average
- 93.5
- +10 vs line
- Median
- 90.5
- +7 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 55%
- at −124
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 53%
- estimate · fair −111
Research, not a pick. At −124 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −111, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2403 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −1483 books | — | 7/10 | |
| −1243 books | −1182 books | 6/10 | |
| — | — | 5/10 | |
| −1141 book | −1141 book | 5/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 5/10 | |
| +1023 books | — | 5/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks at 83.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 83.5 | Under 83.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet6 min ago | −124Best | — |
| betPARX7 min ago | −124Best | −118Best |
| BetRivers8 min ago | −124Best | −118Best |
Prices as of 11:54 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
83.589.5 → 83.5 since first seen