Jared GoffQuestionable

Detroit Lions · QB · #16

NE @ DET · Sun, Nov 15 9:30 AM

Over Under23.5

Under 23.5 Completions, typical price −1304 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 23.5 Completions hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

at MIN, 2025-12-25: 18, hit, 29 attempts
at CHI, 2026-01-04: 27, missed, 42 attempts
vs NO, 2026-09-13: 26, missed, 39 attempts
at BUF, 2026-09-17: 26, missed, 38 attempts
vs NYJ, 2026-09-27: 25, missed, 32 attempts
at CAR, 2026-10-04: 32, missed, 52 attempts
at ARI, 2026-10-11: 19, hit, 30 attempts
vs GB, 2026-10-25: 22, hit, 32 attempts
vs MIN, 2026-11-01: 18, hit, 25 attempts
at MIA, 2026-11-08: 17, hit, 25 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 23.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 16–29 completions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 23.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
NE allow 21.4 completions a game to quarterbacks: 13th most of 32
9 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 27.3 attempts · 2026: 34.1 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at MIA
Game lines
DET −2.5 · total 50.5 (7 sportsbooks)
DET's games this season closed at 51.6 on average (8 games)

Splits

Under 23.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 23.5

Average: 23; −0.5 vs line
Median: 23.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −130
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −118

Research, not a pick. At −118 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −118, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5603 books	—	4/10
−2453 books	—	4/10
−1201 book	−1101 book	5/10
−1224 books	−1302 books	5/10
+1553 books	—	6/10
+2803 books	—	9/10
+4503 books	—	9/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks at 23.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 23.5 Completions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 23.5	Under 23.5
betPARX1 min ago	−122	−118Best
Pinnacle1 min ago	−101Best	−130
Bally Bet1 min ago	−122	—
BetRivers1 min ago	−122	—

Prices as of 6:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

23.5

24.5 → 23.5 since first seen