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Jared GoffQuestionable

Detroit Lions · QB · #16

NE @ DET · Sun, Nov 15 9:30 AM
OverUnder271.5
Over 271.5 Pass+Rush Yards, typical price −1151 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Over 271.5

60%6 of 10L10

Over 271.5 Pass+Rush Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

  1. at MIN, 2025-12-25: 199, missed, 32 attempts + carries
  2. at CHI, 2026-01-04: 331, cleared, 42 attempts + carries
  3. vs NO, 2026-09-13: 208, missed, 41 attempts + carries
  4. at BUF, 2026-09-17: 334, cleared, 41 attempts + carries
  5. vs NYJ, 2026-09-27: 275, cleared, 36 attempts + carries
  6. at CAR, 2026-10-04: 412, cleared, 52 attempts + carries
  7. at ARI, 2026-10-11: 272, cleared, 31 attempts + carries
  8. vs GB, 2026-10-25: 302, cleared, 34 attempts + carries
  9. vs MIN, 2026-11-01: 176, missed, 28 attempts + carries
  10. at MIA, 2026-11-08: 175, missed, 29 attempts + carries
ClearedMissedThe 271.5 linePass attempts + carries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 154.8–364.9 pass+rush yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 271.5 · facts from past games, not a pick
  • Pass attempts + carries

    Last 3: 30.3 attempts + carries · 2026: 36.5 (8 games)

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 at MIA

  • Game lines

    DET −2.5 · total 50.5 (7 sportsbooks)

    DET's games this season closed at 51.6 on average (8 games)

  • NE injuries

    Carlton Davis III (CB, Out, 5 tackles); Kevin Byard (S, Questionable, 4.8 tackles); Charles Woods (CB, Questionable, 3.5 tackles)

    A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10)

Splits

Over 271.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 271.5

Average
268.4
−3.1 vs line
Median
273.5
+2 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −115
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Our chance
50%
estimate · fair −101

Research, not a pick. At −115 the price is worse than our fair −101, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−1151 book−1151 book6/10
Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 271.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 271.5 Pass+Rush Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 271.5Under 271.5
Bovada9 min ago−115Best−115Best
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

271.5

No move since first seen

Jared Goff's full game log and splits