Jared GoffQuestionable
NE @ DET · Sun, Nov 15 9:30 AM
Game log against Over 1.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 1.5 Passing TDs cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–3 passing tds.
What's different on Sunday
Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pickDefense vs quarterbacks
NE allow 1.56 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 13th most of 32
9 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 27.3 attempts · 2026: 34.1 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at MIA
Game lines
DET −2.5 · total 50.5 (7 sportsbooks)
DET's games this season closed at 51.6 on average (8 games)
Splits
Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 1.5
- Average
- 1.7
- +0.2 vs line
- Median
- 1.5
- ±0 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 69%
- at −225
- Books’ fair
- 62%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 58%
- estimate · fair −136
Research, not a pick. At −170 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −136, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −14001 book | — | 9/10 | |
| −2256 books | +1505 books | 5/10 | |
| +1654 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +5004 books | — | 1/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada9 min ago | −170Best | +130 |
| FanDuel8 min ago | −210 | +154Best |
| Pinnacle9 min ago | −210 | +154Best |
| Bally Bet9 min ago | −225 | — |
| betPARX9 min ago | −225 | +150 |
| BetRivers9 min ago | −225 | +150 |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
1.5Over: −200 → −225 since first seen