Jahmyr Gibbs
NE @ DET · Sun, Nov 15 9:30 AM
Game log against Under 131.5
50%5 of 10L10
Under 131.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (0 of 4 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 48.2–174.5 rush+rec yards.
What's different on Sunday
Under 131.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Jared Goff: Questionable (chest). He led DET in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 131.5 with Goff at quarterback: 40 of 55; with another DET quarterback: no games
Defense vs running backs
NE allow 112.4 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 27th most of 32
9 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 27.7 carries + targets · 2026: 27.8 (8 games)
Target share: 13% last 3 games · 16% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at MIA
Splits
Under 131.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Under 131.5
- Average
- 130.9
- −0.6 vs line
- Median
- 128
- −3.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 55%
- at −124
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 53%
- estimate · fair −111
Research, not a pick. At −124 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −111, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2753 books | — | 3/10 | |
| −1803 books | — | 5/10 | |
| −1253 books | — | 5/10 | |
| −1173 books | −1242 books | 5/10 | |
| −1141 book | −1141 book | 5/10 | |
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 5/10 | |
| +1123 books | — | 5/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 131.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 131.5 | Under 131.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX7 min ago | −117Best | −124Best |
| BetRivers7 min ago | −117Best | −124Best |
| Bally Bet7 min ago | −117Best | — |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 5:41 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
131.5133.5 → 131.5 since first seen