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Jahmyr Gibbs

Detroit Lions · RB · #0

NE @ DET · Sun, Nov 15 9:30 AM
OverUnder32.5
Under 32.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1134 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 32.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 32.5 Receiving Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

  1. at MIN, 2025-12-25: 23, hit, 3 targets
  2. at CHI, 2026-01-04: 33, missed, 5 targets
  3. vs NO, 2026-09-13: 30, hit, 5 targets
  4. at BUF, 2026-09-17: 61, missed, 8 targets
  5. vs NYJ, 2026-09-27: 65, missed, 8 targets
  6. at CAR, 2026-10-04: 31, hit, 7 targets
  7. at ARI, 2026-10-11: 56, missed, 6 targets
  8. vs GB, 2026-10-25: 27, hit, 6 targets
  9. vs MIN, 2026-11-01: 15, hit, 4 targets
  10. at MIA, 2026-11-08: 0, hit, 1 targets
Under hitMissedThe 32.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 7.4–66.7 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 32.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunTargets

    Last 3: 3.7 targets · 2026: 5.6 (8 games) · down 34%

    Target share: 13% last 3 games · 16% over 8 games this season

  • Quarterback

    Jared Goff: Questionable (chest). He led DET in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Under 32.5 with Goff at quarterback: 32 of 54; with another DET quarterback: no games

  • Defense vs running backs

    NE allow 28.8 receiving yards a game to running backs: 21st most of 32

    9 games

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 at MIA

Splits

Under 32.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 32.5

Average
34.1
+1.6 vs line
Median
30.5
−2 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −113
Books’ fair
49%
margin removed
Our chance
50%
estimate · fair −102

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −102, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−1594 books—4/10
pick'em onlypick'em only5/10
−1162 books−1142 books6/10
−1294 books−1133 books6/10
+1254 books—7/10
+2551 book—7/10
+4101 book—8/10
Compare 4 sportsbooks at 32.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 32.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 32.5Under 32.5
betPARX4 min ago−129−113Best
BetRivers4 min ago−129−113Best
Bovada4 min ago−110Best−120
Bally Bet4 min ago−129—

Prices as of 6:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

32.5

31.5 → 32.5 since first seen

Jahmyr Gibbs's full game log and splits