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Jahmyr Gibbs

Detroit Lions · RB · #0

NE @ DET · Sun, Nov 15 9:30 AM
OverUnder4.5
Under 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1385 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 4.5

50%5 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Receptions hit in 5 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 at home).

  1. at MIN, 2025-12-25: 2, hit, 3 targets
  2. at CHI, 2026-01-04: 3, hit, 5 targets
  3. vs NO, 2026-09-13: 5, missed, 5 targets
  4. at BUF, 2026-09-17: 6, missed, 8 targets
  5. vs NYJ, 2026-09-27: 7, missed, 8 targets
  6. at CAR, 2026-10-04: 4, hit, 7 targets
  7. at ARI, 2026-10-11: 5, missed, 6 targets
  8. vs GB, 2026-10-25: 5, missed, 6 targets
  9. vs MIN, 2026-11-01: 2, hit, 4 targets
  10. at MIA, 2026-11-08: 0, hit, 1 targets
Under hitMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunTargets

    Last 3: 3.7 targets · 2026: 5.6 (8 games) · down 34%

    Target share: 13% last 3 games · 16% over 8 games this season

  • Quarterback

    Jared Goff: Questionable (chest). He led DET in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Under 4.5 with Goff at quarterback: 37 of 54; with another DET quarterback: no games

  • Defense vs running backs

    NE allow 3.7 receptions a game to running backs: 23rd most of 32

    9 games

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 at MIA

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 4.5

Average
3.9
−0.6 vs line
Median
4.5
±0 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
58%
at −138
Books’ fair
54%
margin removed
Our chance
55%
estimate · fair −123

Research, not a pick. At −134 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −123, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−25003 books—1/10
−5904 books—3/10
−2305 books+1201 book4/10
−1095 books−1383 books5/10
+1754 books—8/10
+3104 books—9/10
+5004 books—10/10
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 4.5Under 4.5
betPARX5 min ago−109−134Best
FanDuel5 min ago+104−138
Pinnacle5 min ago+110Best−146
Bally Bet5 min ago−109—
BetRivers5 min ago−109—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 5:41 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Under: −130 → −138 since first seen

Jahmyr Gibbs's full game log and splits