Drake London

Atlanta Falcons · WR · #5

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Under 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1066 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

vs NO, 2026-01-04: 4, hit, 8 targets
at PIT, 2026-09-13: 2, hit, 4 targets
vs CAR, 2026-09-20: 4, hit, 5 targets
at GB, 2026-09-24: 9, missed, 10 targets
at NO, 2026-10-05: 5, hit, 6 targets
vs BAL, 2026-10-11: 7, missed, 11 targets
vs CHI, 2026-10-18: 4, hit, 10 targets
vs SF, 2026-10-25: 7, missed, 10 targets
at TB, 2026-11-01: 1, hit, 6 targets
vs CIN, 2026-11-08: 5, hit, 5 targets

Under hitMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. led ATL in passing in 7 of 9 games this season
Also led: Cooper Rush 2. Under 5.5 with Penix at quarterback: 8 of 19; with another ATL quarterback: 18 of 27
Defense vs wide receivers
KC allow 9.9 receptions a game to wide receivers: 27th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 7 targets · 2026: 7.4 (9 games)
Target share: 24% last 3 games · 26% over 9 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs CIN

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against KC in his last 10; Under 5.5 hit in 0 of 1 against KC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs KC

Receptions: 6 in 9 targets, Sep 22, 2024 (home)

Under 5.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against KC on record

L10 · Under 5.5

Average: 4.8; −0.7 vs line
Median: 4.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −106
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −143

Research, not a pick. At +105 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −143, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−33353 books	—	2/10
−6704 books	—	2/10
−2654 books	—	5/10
−1246 books	−1064 books	7/10
+1554 books	—	7/10
+2804 books	—	9/10
+5104 books	—	9/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
Bovada15 min ago	−135	+105Best
Pinnacle15 min ago	−126	−105
betPARX15 min ago	−124	−106
FanDuel15 min ago	−118Best	−112
Bally Bet15 min ago	−124	—
BetRivers15 min ago	−124	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:22 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

Under: −108 → −106 since first seen