Darren Waller

Carolina Panthers · TE · #88

CAR @ NO · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1595 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

vs CIN, 2025-12-21: 3, cleared, 5 targets
vs TB, 2025-12-28: 1, missed, 3 targets
vs CHI, 2026-09-13: 2, missed, 2 targets
at ATL, 2026-09-20: 3, cleared, 3 targets
at CLE, 2026-09-27: 5, cleared, 8 targets
vs DET, 2026-10-04: 3, cleared, 6 targets
at PHI, 2026-10-18: 0, missed, 2 targets
vs TB, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 2 targets
at GB, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 2 targets
vs DEN, 2026-11-08: 8, cleared, 10 targets

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
8 games with CAR; before that, MIA
Over 2.5 with CAR: 4 of 8; his last 10 games before: 6 of 10
Defense vs tight ends
NO allow 5.9 receptions a game to tight ends: 9th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 4.7 targets · 2026: 4.4 (8 games)
Target share: 13% last 3 games · 11% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs DEN

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NO in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 1 of 2 against NO on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs NO

Waller didn't play the Dec 14, 2025 meeting; receptions the last time Waller faced them: 2 (Nov 30, 2025)

Over 2.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against NO on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 2.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −159
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −119

Research, not a pick. At −119 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −119, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4804 books	—	6/10
−1595 books	−1023 books	5/10
+1484 books	—	2/10
+3004 books	—	2/10
+5504 books	—	1/10
+14001 book	—	1/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Pinnacle16 min ago	−119Best	−111
FanDuel16 min ago	−130	−102
Bally Bet16 min ago	−159	—
betPARX16 min ago	−159	+110Best
BetRivers16 min ago	−159	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: −130 → −159 since first seen