Darren Waller

Carolina Panthers · TE · #88

CAR @ NO · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under29.5

Over 29.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1065 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 29.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

vs CIN, 2025-12-21: 40, cleared, 5 targets
vs TB, 2025-12-28: 0, missed, 3 targets
vs CHI, 2026-09-13: 28, missed, 2 targets
at ATL, 2026-09-20: 33, cleared, 3 targets
at CLE, 2026-09-27: 51, cleared, 8 targets
vs DET, 2026-10-04: 36, cleared, 6 targets
at PHI, 2026-10-18: 0, missed, 2 targets
vs TB, 2026-10-25: 50, cleared, 2 targets
at GB, 2026-10-29: 11, missed, 2 targets
vs DEN, 2026-11-08: 90, cleared, 10 targets

ClearedMissedThe 29.5 lineTargets

What's different on Sunday

Over 29.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
8 games with CAR; before that, MIA
Over 29.5 with CAR: 5 of 8; his last 10 games before: 6 of 10
Defense vs tight ends
NO allow 65.1 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 6th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 4.7 targets · 2026: 4.4 (8 games)
Target share: 13% last 3 games · 11% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs DEN

Splits

Over 29.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NO in his last 10; Over 29.5 cleared in 2 of 2 against NO on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs NO

Waller didn't play the Dec 14, 2025 meeting; receiving yards the last time Waller faced them: 47 (Nov 30, 2025)

Over 29.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against NO on record

L10 · Over 29.5

Average: 33.9; +4.4 vs line
Median: 34.5; +5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −106
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Targets: 4.3; 10 games · 4.3 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 29.5 50%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1621 book	—	7/10
−1203 books	−1212 books	7/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
−1065 books	−1162 books	6/10
+1604 books	—	4/10
+2701 book	—	3/10
+4301 book	—	1/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 29.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 29.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 29.5	Under 29.5
Bally Bet2 min ago	−106Best	—
betPARX2 min ago	−106Best	—
BetRivers2 min ago	−106Best	—
FanDuel2 min ago	−114	−114Best
Pinnacle3 min ago	−114	−116
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:25 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

29.5

−114 → −106 since first seen