D'Andre Swift

Chicago Bears · RB · #4

TB @ CHI · Sun, Nov 8 8:20 PM

Over Under16.5

Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts, typical price −1304 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

vs GB, 2026-01-10: 13, hit, 13 carries
vs LAR, 2026-01-18: 19, missed, 19 carries
at CAR, 2026-09-13: 18, missed, 18 carries
vs MIN, 2026-09-20: 16, hit, 16 carries
vs PHI, 2026-09-28: 20, missed, 20 carries
vs NYJ, 2026-10-04: 15, hit, 15 carries
at GB, 2026-10-11: 9, hit, 9 carries
at ATL, 2026-10-18: 16, hit, 16 carries
vs NE, 2026-10-22: 22, missed, 22 carries
at SEA, 2026-11-02: 27, missed, 27 carries

Under hitMissedThe 16.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 8.9–22.6 rushing attempts.

What's different on Sunday

Under 16.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Caleb Williams led CHI in passing in 5 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyson Bagent 2; Case Keenum 1. Under 16.5 with Williams at quarterback: 26 of 40; with another CHI quarterback: 2 of 3
Defense vs running backs
TB allow 18.6 carries a game to running backs: 29th most of 32
8 games
Carries
Last 3: 21.7 carries · 2026: 17.9 (8 games)
Rest
5 days off since Nov 2 at SEA

Splits

Under 16.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TB in his last 10; Under 16.5 hit in 1 of 1 against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs TB

Rushing Attempts: 10 in 10 carries, Jan 15, 2024 (away)

Under 16.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against TB on record

L10 · Under 16.5

Average: 17.5; +1 vs line
Median: 17; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −130
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −107

Research, not a pick. At −107 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −107, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4003 books	—	2/10
−1773 books	—	3/10
−1224 books	−1302 books	5/10
+1183 books	—	5/10
+2303 books	—	7/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 16.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 16.5	Under 16.5
betPARX9 min ago	−122	−107Best
Pinnacle9 min ago	−102Best	−130
Bally Bet9 min ago	−122	—
BetRivers9 min ago	−124	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:57 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

16.5

Under: −124 → −130 since first seen