D'Andre Swift

Chicago Bears · RB · #4

TB @ CHI · Sun, Nov 8 8:20 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1356 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 6 at home).

vs DET, 2026-01-04: 1, missed, 2 targets
vs GB, 2026-01-10: 2, missed, 2 targets
at CAR, 2026-09-13: 1, missed, 1 targets
vs MIN, 2026-09-20: 5, cleared, 5 targets
vs PHI, 2026-09-28: 2, missed, 3 targets
vs NYJ, 2026-10-04: 2, missed, 2 targets
at GB, 2026-10-11: 4, cleared, 5 targets
at ATL, 2026-10-18: 4, cleared, 5 targets
vs NE, 2026-10-22: 4, cleared, 4 targets
at SEA, 2026-11-02: 2, missed, 3 targets

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Caleb Williams led CHI in passing in 5 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyson Bagent 2; Case Keenum 1. Over 2.5 with Williams at quarterback: 16 of 38; with another CHI quarterback: 1 of 3
Defense vs running backs
TB allow 4.9 receptions a game to running backs: 11th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 4 targets · 2026: 3.5 (8 games)
Target share: 12% last 3 games · 10% over 8 games this season
Rest
5 days off since Nov 2 at SEA

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TB in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs TB

Receptions: 4 in 4 targets, Jan 15, 2024 (away)

Over 2.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against TB on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 2.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −135
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −132 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −130, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−50003 books	—	10/10
−4004 books	—	8/10
−1356 books	+1054 books	4/10
+1854 books	—	4/10
+4004 books	—	1/10
+9004 books	—	0/10
+12001 book	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bally Bet6 min ago	−132Best	—
betPARX6 min ago	−132Best	+102
BetRivers6 min ago	−132Best	—
Bovada6 min ago	−135	+105
Pinnacle6 min ago	−146	+110
FanDuel6 min ago	−148	+112Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:19 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: −148 → −135 since first seen