Courtland Sutton

Denver Broncos · WR · #14

DEN @ CAR · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under33.5

Under 33.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1183 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 33.5 Receiving Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

vs BUF, 2026-01-17: 53, missed, 9 targets
vs NE, 2026-01-25: 17, hit, 5 targets
at KC, 2026-09-14: 11, hit, 5 targets
vs JAX, 2026-09-20: 25, hit, 4 targets
vs LAR, 2026-09-27: 46, missed, 7 targets
at SF, 2026-10-04: 4, hit, 6 targets
at LAC, 2026-10-11: 18, hit, 3 targets
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 19, hit, 3 targets
at ARI, 2026-10-25: 45, missed, 5 targets
vs KC, 2026-11-01: 53, missed, 4 targets

Under hitMissedThe 33.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 4.8–61.2 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 33.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Bo Nix led DEN in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 33.5 with Nix at quarterback: 13 of 43; with another DEN quarterback: 3 of 9
Defense vs wide receivers
CAR allow 144.4 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 16th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 4 targets · 2026: 4.6 (8 games)
Target share: 14% last 3 games · 15% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs KC

Splits

Under 33.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CAR in his last 10; Under 33.5 hit in 0 of 1 against CAR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CAR

Receiving Yards: 100 in 11 targets, Oct 27, 2024 (home)

Under 33.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against CAR on record

L10 · Under 33.5

Average: 29.1; −4.4 vs line
Median: 22; −11.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −110

Research, not a pick. At −117 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −110, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2201 book	+1651 book	6/10
−1414 books	—	6/10
−1601 book	+1201 book	6/10
−1103 books	−1182 books	6/10
−1141 book	−1141 book	6/10
−1001 book	−1321 book	6/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	6/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 33.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 33.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 33.5	Under 33.5
betPARX8 min ago	−110Best	−117Best
BetRivers8 min ago	−112	−118
Bally Bet7 min ago	−110Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:19 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

33.5

36.5 → 33.5 since first seen