Christian McCaffrey
SF @ DAL · Sun, Nov 15 4:25 PM
Game log against Under 61.5
50%5 of 10L10
Under 61.5 Rushing Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 24.5–80.9 rushing yards.
What's different on Sunday
Under 61.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Brock Purdy led SF in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 61.5 with Purdy at quarterback: 10 of 33; with another SF quarterback: 7 of 9
Defense vs running backs
DAL allow 112.8 rushing yards a game to running backs: 4th most of 32
9 games
Carries
Last 3: 13.7 carries · 2026: 12.8 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs LV
Splits
Under 61.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Under 61.5
- Average
- 54
- −7.5 vs line
- Median
- 58
- −3.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 52%
- estimate · fair −108
Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −108, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −6254 books | — | 3/10 | |
| −2654 books | — | 4/10 | |
| −1324 books | — | 5/10 | |
| −1154 books | −1143 books | 5/10 | |
| −1142 books | −1202 books | 5/10 | |
| +1384 books | — | 9/10 | |
| +2354 books | — | 10/10 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 61.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 61.5 | Under 61.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX5 min ago | −115 | −113Best |
| BetRivers5 min ago | −117 | −114 |
| Pinnacle5 min ago | −114Best | −114 |
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −115 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 7:10 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
61.5No move since first seen