Chase Brown
CIN @ ATL · Sun, Nov 8 9:30 AM
Game log against Under 51.5
30%3 of 10L10
Under 51.5 Rushing Yards hit in 3 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 18–74.5 rushing yards.
What's different on Sunday
Under 51.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Joe Burrow led CIN in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Under 51.5 with Burrow at quarterback: 11 of 30; with another CIN quarterback: 11 of 16
Defense vs running backs
ATL allow 110.3 rushing yards a game to running backs: 7th most of 32
8 games
Carries
Last 3: 12 carries · 2026: 13.4 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs TEN
Splits
Under 51.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Under 51.5
- Average
- 57.9
- +6.4 vs line
- Median
- 58.5
- +7 vs line
- Hit rate
- 30%
- 3 of 10
- Price implies
- 54%
- at −118
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 52%
- estimate · fair −107
Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −107, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2654 books | — | 3/10 | |
| −1375 books | −1142 books | 3/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 3/10 | |
| −1224 books | −1183 books | 3/10 | |
| +1254 books | — | 5/10 | |
| +2351 book | — | 7/10 | |
| +3701 book | — | 8/10 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 51.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 51.5 | Under 51.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada2 min ago | −115Best | −115Best |
| betPARX2 min ago | −122 | −118 |
| BetRiversjust now | −122 | −118 |
| Bally Bet2 min ago | −122 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 12:45 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
51.555.5 → 51.5 since first seen