Chase Brown
CIN @ ATL · Sun, Nov 8 9:30 AM
Game log against Under 74.5
30%3 of 10L10
Under 74.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 3 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 36.8–93.2 rush+rec yards.
What's different on Sunday
Under 74.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Joe Burrow led CIN in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Under 74.5 with Burrow at quarterback: 12 of 30; with another CIN quarterback: 10 of 16
Defense vs running backs
ATL allow 144.3 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 7th most of 32
8 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 18 carries + targets · 2026: 19.4 (7 games)
Target share: 16% last 3 games · 16% over 7 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs TEN
Splits
Under 74.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Under 74.5
- Average
- 86.9
- +12.4 vs line
- Median
- 81.5
- +7 vs line
- Hit rate
- 30%
- 3 of 10
- Price implies
- 54%
- at −118
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 54%
- estimate · fair −116
Research, not a pick. At −118 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −116, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2863 books | — | 1/10 | |
| −1573 books | — | 3/10 | |
| −1223 books | −1182 books | 3/10 | |
| −1141 book | −1141 book | 3/10 | |
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 3/10 | |
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 4/10 | |
| +1053 books | — | 4/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks at 74.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 74.5 | Under 74.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX5 min ago | −122Best | −118Best |
| BetRivers5 min ago | −122Best | −118Best |
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −122Best | — |
Prices as of 4:51 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
74.579.5 → 74.5 since first seen