Cam Ward
JAX @ TEN · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM
Game log against Over 0.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 0.5 Passing TDs cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–2 passing tds.
What's different on Sunday
Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pickDefense vs quarterbacks
JAX allow 1.00 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 28th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 31 attempts · 2026: 31 (8 games)
Rest
13 days off since Nov 1 at CIN
Game lines
TEN +10.5 · total 46.5 (8 sportsbooks)
TEN's games this season closed at 40.3 on average (8 games)
Splits
Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
Last vs JAX
Passing TDs: 0 in 3 attempts, Jan 4 (away)
Over 0.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against JAX on record
L10 · Over 0.5
- Average
- 0.8
- +0.3 vs line
- Median
- 1
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 71%
- at −240
- Books’ fair
- 67%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 65%
- estimate · fair −188
Research, not a pick. At −240 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −188, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2403 books | +1743 books | 6/10 | |
| +1754 books | −2652 books | 2/10 | |
| +6004 books | — | 0/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel5 min ago | −240Best | +174 |
| Pinnacle5 min ago | −240Best | +174 |
| Bovada5 min ago | −275 | +200Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 5:39 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
0.5−275 → −240 since first seen