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Cam Ward

Tennessee Titans · QB · #1

JAX @ TEN · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM
OverUnder20.5
Under 20.5 Completions, typical price −1224 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 20.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 20.5 Completions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

  1. vs NO, 2025-12-28: 21, missed, 40 attempts
  2. at JAX, 2026-01-04: 3, hit, 3 attempts
  3. vs NYJ, 2026-09-13: 19, hit, 32 attempts
  4. vs PHI, 2026-09-20: 13, hit, 20 attempts
  5. at NYG, 2026-09-27: 23, missed, 36 attempts
  6. at BAL, 2026-10-04: 20, hit, 31 attempts
  7. vs HOU, 2026-10-11: 23, missed, 36 attempts
  8. at IND, 2026-10-18: 11, hit, 22 attempts
  9. vs CLE, 2026-10-25: 20, hit, 31 attempts
  10. at CIN, 2026-11-01: 26, missed, 40 attempts
Under hitMissedThe 20.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 13.9–27 completions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 20.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Defense vs quarterbacks

    JAX allow 21.3 completions a game to quarterbacks: 16th most of 32

    8 games

  • Pass attempts

    Last 3: 31 attempts · 2026: 31 (8 games)

  • Rest

    13 days off since Nov 1 at CIN

  • Game lines

    TEN +10.5 · total 46.5 (7 sportsbooks)

    TEN's games this season closed at 40.3 on average (8 games)

Splits

Under 20.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs JAX

Completions: 3 in 3 attempts, Jan 4 (away)

Under 20.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against JAX on record

L10 · Under 20.5

Average
17.9
−2.6 vs line
Median
20
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
55%
at −122
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Our chance
52%
estimate · fair −109

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −109, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−8353 books—3/10
−3453 books—3/10
−1653 books—4/10
−1184 books−1222 books6/10
+1163 books—7/10
+2103 books—9/10
+3703 books—9/10
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 20.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 20.5 Completions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 20.5Under 20.5
Bovada14 min ago−115Best−115Best
betPARX14 min ago−118−122
Bally Bet14 min ago−118—
BetRivers14 min ago−118—
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:18 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

20.5

−105 → −122 since first seen

Cam Ward's full game log and splits