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Cam Ward

Tennessee Titans · QB · #1

JAX @ TEN · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM
OverUnder0.5
Over 0.5 Passing TDs, typical price −2403 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Over 0.5

60%6 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Passing TDs cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

  1. vs NO, 2025-12-28: 2, cleared, 40 attempts
  2. at JAX, 2026-01-04: 0, missed, 3 attempts
  3. vs NYJ, 2026-09-13: 1, cleared, 32 attempts
  4. vs PHI, 2026-09-20: 0, missed, 20 attempts
  5. at NYG, 2026-09-27: 1, cleared, 36 attempts
  6. at BAL, 2026-10-04: 1, cleared, 31 attempts
  7. vs HOU, 2026-10-11: 0, missed, 36 attempts
  8. at IND, 2026-10-18: 1, cleared, 22 attempts
  9. vs CLE, 2026-10-25: 0, missed, 31 attempts
  10. at CIN, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 40 attempts
ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–2 passing tds.

What's different on Sunday

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Defense vs quarterbacks

    JAX allow 1.00 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 28th most of 32

    8 games

  • Pass attempts

    Last 3: 31 attempts · 2026: 31 (8 games)

  • Rest

    13 days off since Nov 1 at CIN

  • Game lines

    TEN +10.5 · total 46.5 (7 sportsbooks)

    TEN's games this season closed at 40.3 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs JAX

Passing TDs: 0 in 3 attempts, Jan 4 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against JAX on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average
0.8
+0.3 vs line
Median
1
+0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
71%
at −240
Books’ fair
67%
margin removed
Our chance
65%
estimate · fair −188

Research, not a pick. At −240 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −188, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−2403 books+1743 books6/10
+1754 books−2652 books2/10
+6004 books—0/10
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Passing TDs, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 0.5Under 0.5
FanDuel13 min ago−240Best+174
Pinnacle13 min ago−240Best+174
Bovada13 min ago−275+200Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:18 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

−275 → −240 since first seen

Cam Ward's full game log and splits