C.J. Stroud

Houston Texans · QB · #7

HOU @ LAC · Sun, Nov 8 4:05 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Passing TDs, typical price −1106 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Passing TDs cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (1 of 5 on the road).

vs IND, 2026-01-04: 1, missed, 23 attempts
at PIT, 2026-01-12: 1, missed, 32 attempts
at NE, 2026-01-18: 1, missed, 47 attempts
vs BUF, 2026-09-13: 2, cleared, 38 attempts
vs CIN, 2026-09-20: 0, missed, 55 attempts
at IND, 2026-09-27: 1, missed, 27 attempts
vs DAL, 2026-10-04: 2, cleared, 31 attempts
at TEN, 2026-10-11: 1, missed, 34 attempts
at JAX, 2026-10-18: 3, cleared, 34 attempts
vs NYG, 2026-10-25: 2, cleared, 28 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–3 passing tds.

What's different on Sunday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
LAC allow 1.14 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 26th most of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 32 attempts · 2026: 35.3 (7 games)
Rest
13 days off since Oct 25 vs NYG
Game lines
HOU −4.5 · total 40.5 (7 sportsbooks)
HOU's games this season closed at 43.5 on average (7 games)

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAC in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 1 of 2 against LAC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs LAC

Passing TDs: 2 in 28 attempts, Dec 27, 2025 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against LAC on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 1.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −110
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 50%; estimate · fair +102

Research, not a pick. At −108 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair +102, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6701 book	—	9/10
−1106 books	−1205 books	4/10
+3304 books	—	1/10
+11001 book	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Passing TDs, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet3 min ago	−108Best	—
betPARX3 min ago	−108Best	−134
BetRivers3 min ago	−108Best	−134
Bovada3 min ago	−110	−120
Pinnacle3 min ago	−112	−118
FanDuel3 min ago	−114	−114Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −112 → −110 since first seen