Brock Purdy
LV @ SF · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM
Game log against Over 241.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 241.5 Passing Yards cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 184.7–300.1 passing yards.
What's different on Sunday
Over 241.5 · facts from past games, not a pickDefense vs quarterbacks
LV allow 250.8 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 8th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 32.7 attempts · 2026: 30.1 (7 games)
Rest
13 days off since Oct 25 at ATL
Game lines
SF −9.5 · total 52 (7 sportsbooks)
SF's games this season closed at 48.1 on average (7 games)
Splits
Over 241.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against LV on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 241.5
- Average
- 227.7
- −13.8 vs line
- Median
- 240
- −1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 52%
- estimate · fair −108
Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −108, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −6701 book | — | 8/10 | |
| −4354 books | — | 7/10 | |
| −1864 books | — | 5/10 | |
| −1144 books | −1143 books | 5/10 | |
| −1331 book | +1011 book | 5/10 | |
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 5/10 | |
| +1104 books | — | 5/10 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 241.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 241.5 | Under 241.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −114Best | — |
| betPARX4 min ago | −114Best | −114Best |
| FanDuel4 min ago | −114Best | −114Best |
| BetRivers4 min ago | −115 | −115 |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:59 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
241.5245.5 → 241.5 since first seen