Brock Purdy
LV @ SF · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM
Game log against Over 268.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 268.5 Pass+Rush Yards cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 201.5–326.8 pass+rush yards.
What's different on Sunday
Over 268.5 · facts from past games, not a pickPass attempts + carries
Last 3: 36.7 attempts + carries · 2026: 34.7 (7 games)
Rest
13 days off since Oct 25 at ATL
Game lines
SF −10 · total 53 (5 sportsbooks)
SF's games this season closed at 48.1 on average (7 games)
LV injuries
Darien Porter (CB, Questionable, 3.8 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10)
Splits
Over 268.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against LV on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 268.5
- Average
- 252
- −16.5 vs line
- Median
- 266.5
- −2 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −115
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 51%
- estimate · fair −103
Research, not a pick. At −115 the price is worse than our fair −103, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 5/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 5/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook at 268.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 268.5 | Under 268.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada2 min ago | −115Best | −115Best |
Prices as of 5:01 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
268.5Over: No move since first seen