Brock Purdy
LV @ SF · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM
Game log against Over 245.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 245.5 Passing Yards cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 184.7–300.1 passing yards.
What's different on Sunday
Over 245.5 · facts from past games, not a pickDefense vs quarterbacks
LV allow 250.8 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 8th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 32.7 attempts · 2026: 30.1 (7 games)
Rest
13 days off since Oct 25 at ATL
Game lines
SF −10 · total 52.5 (6 sportsbooks)
SF's games this season closed at 48.1 on average (7 games)
Splits
Over 245.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against LV on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 245.5
- Average
- 227.7
- −17.8 vs line
- Median
- 240
- −5.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 51%
- estimate · fair −105
Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −105, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −4804 books | — | 7/10 | |
| −2054 books | — | 5/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 5/10 | |
| −1145 books | −1154 books | 5/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 5/10 | |
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 5/10 | |
| +1004 books | — | 5/10 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 245.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 245.5 | Under 245.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet6 min ago | −113Best | — |
| betPARX6 min ago | −113Best | −115 |
| BetRivers6 min ago | −114 | −117 |
| FanDuel5 min ago | −114 | −114 |
| Pinnacle6 min ago | −133 | +101Best |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 3:31 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
245.5No move since first seen