Bo Nix

Denver Broncos · QB · #10

DEN @ CAR · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under210.5

Under 210.5 Passing Yards, typical price −1155 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Under 210.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
CAR allow 219.6 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 25th most of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 29.3 attempts · 2026: 31.3 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs KC
Game lines
DEN −3 · total 44 (7 sportsbooks)
DEN's games this season closed at 43.8 on average (8 games)

50%5 of 10L10

Under 210.5 Passing Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

vs LAC, 2026-01-04: 141, hit, 23 attempts
vs BUF, 2026-01-17: 279, missed, 46 attempts
at KC, 2026-09-14: 131, hit, 28 attempts
vs JAX, 2026-09-20: 288, missed, 31 attempts
vs LAR, 2026-09-27: 186, hit, 34 attempts
at SF, 2026-10-04: 214, missed, 42 attempts
at LAC, 2026-10-11: 123, hit, 27 attempts
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 107, hit, 27 attempts
at ARI, 2026-10-25: 222, missed, 29 attempts
vs KC, 2026-11-01: 222, missed, 32 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 210.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 114.5–273.8 passing yards.

Splits

Under 210.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CAR in his last 10; Under 210.5 hit in 0 of 1 against CAR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CAR

Passing Yards: 284 in 37 attempts, Oct 27, 2024 (home)

Under 210.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against CAR on record

L10 · Under 210.5

Average: 191.3; −19.2 vs line
Median: 200; −10.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −111

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −111, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2953 books	—	4/10
−1574 books	—	5/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	5/10
−1145 books	−1154 books	5/10
+1304 books	—	8/10
+2504 books	—	8/10
+3701 book	—	8/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 210.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 210.5 Passing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 210.5	Under 210.5
FanDuel11 min ago	−114	−114Best
Pinnacle12 min ago	−114	−114Best
betPARX12 min ago	−113Best	−115
BetRivers12 min ago	−114	−117
Bally Bet12 min ago	−113Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:41 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

210.5

No move since first seen