Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons · RB · #7

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under19.5

Under 19.5 Rushing Attempts, typical price −1053 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 19.5 Rushing Attempts hit in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 at home).

vs NO, 2026-01-04: 15, hit, 15 carries
at PIT, 2026-09-13: 21, missed, 21 carries
vs CAR, 2026-09-20: 16, hit, 16 carries
at GB, 2026-09-24: 29, missed, 29 carries
at NO, 2026-10-05: 19, hit, 19 carries
vs BAL, 2026-10-11: 17, hit, 17 carries
vs CHI, 2026-10-18: 9, hit, 9 carries
vs SF, 2026-10-25: 20, missed, 20 carries
at TB, 2026-11-01: 19, hit, 19 carries
vs CIN, 2026-11-08: 19, hit, 19 carries

Under hitMissedThe 19.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 9.6–23 rushing attempts.

What's different on Sunday

Under 19.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. led ATL in passing in 7 of 9 games this season
Also led: Cooper Rush 2. Under 19.5 with Penix at quarterback: 13 of 19; with another ATL quarterback: 22 of 32
Defense vs running backs
KC allow 21.8 carries a game to running backs: 19th most of 32
8 games
Carries
Last 3: 19.3 carries · 2026: 18.8 (9 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs CIN

Splits

Under 19.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against KC in his last 10; Under 19.5 hit in 1 of 1 against KC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs KC

Rushing Attempts: 16 in 16 carries, Sep 22, 2024 (home)

Under 19.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against KC on record

L10 · Under 19.5

Average: 18.4; −1.1 vs line
Median: 19; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −105
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −146

Research, not a pick. At −105 the price beats our fair −146, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5003 books	—	2/10
−2353 books	—	4/10
−1253 books	−1051 book	7/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	8/10
+1433 books	—	9/10
+2453 books	—	9/10
+4203 books	—	9/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 19.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 19.5 Rushing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 19.5	Under 19.5
betPARX5 min ago	−125Best	−105Best
Bally Bet5 min ago	−125Best	—
BetRivers5 min ago	−125Best	—

Prices as of 5:42 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

19.5

No move since first seen