Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons · RB · #7

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under86.5

Under 86.5 Rushing Yards, typical price −1153 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 86.5 Rushing Yards hit in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 at home).

vs NO, 2026-01-04: 33, hit, 15 carries
at PIT, 2026-09-13: 83, hit, 21 carries
vs CAR, 2026-09-20: 72, hit, 16 carries
at GB, 2026-09-24: 194, missed, 29 carries
at NO, 2026-10-05: 145, missed, 19 carries
vs BAL, 2026-10-11: 86, hit, 17 carries
vs CHI, 2026-10-18: 61, hit, 9 carries
vs SF, 2026-10-25: 63, hit, 20 carries
at TB, 2026-11-01: 76, hit, 19 carries
vs CIN, 2026-11-08: 100, missed, 19 carries

Under hitMissedThe 86.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 25.3–138.3 rushing yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 86.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. led ATL in passing in 7 of 9 games this season
Also led: Cooper Rush 2. Under 86.5 with Penix at quarterback: 10 of 19; with another ATL quarterback: 20 of 32
Defense vs running backs
KC allow 73.3 rushing yards a game to running backs: 26th most of 32
8 games
Carries
Last 3: 19.3 carries · 2026: 18.8 (9 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs CIN

Splits

Under 86.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against KC in his last 10; Under 86.5 hit in 1 of 1 against KC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs KC

Rushing Yards: 31 in 16 carries, Sep 22, 2024 (home)

Under 86.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against KC on record

L10 · Under 86.5

Average: 91.3; +4.8 vs line
Median: 79.5; −7 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −120

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −120, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5304 books	—	1/10
−2784 books	—	3/10
−1654 books	—	5/10
−1153 books	−1153 books	7/10
−1143 books	−1152 books	7/10
−1054 books	—	7/10
+1454 books	—	7/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 86.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 86.5 Rushing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 86.5	Under 86.5
FanDuel10 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Bovada10 min ago	−115	−115
Pinnacle10 min ago	−115	−115
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

86.5

84.5 → 86.5 since first seen