Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons · RB · #7

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under28.5

Over 28.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1143 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Over 28.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

vs NO, 2026-01-04: 10, missed, 3 targets
at PIT, 2026-09-13: 90, cleared, 10 targets
vs CAR, 2026-09-20: 9, missed, 4 targets
at GB, 2026-09-24: 19, missed, 2 targets
at NO, 2026-10-05: 2, missed, 2 targets
vs BAL, 2026-10-11: 32, cleared, 7 targets
vs CHI, 2026-10-18: -8, missed, 2 targets
vs SF, 2026-10-25: 59, cleared, 5 targets
at TB, 2026-11-01: 0, missed, 1 targets
vs CIN, 2026-11-08: 47, cleared, 7 targets

ClearedMissedThe 28.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–73.8 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 28.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. led ATL in passing in 7 of 9 games this season
Also led: Cooper Rush 2. Over 28.5 with Penix at quarterback: 10 of 19; with another ATL quarterback: 16 of 32
Defense vs running backs
KC allow 42.5 receiving yards a game to running backs: 5th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 4.3 targets · 2026: 4.4 (9 games)
Target share: 15% last 3 games · 16% over 9 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs CIN

Splits

Over 28.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against KC in his last 10; Over 28.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against KC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs KC

Receiving Yards: 21 in 2 targets, Sep 22, 2024 (home)

Over 28.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against KC on record

L10 · Over 28.5

Average: 26; −2.5 vs line
Median: 14.5; −14 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 51%; estimate · fair −102

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −102, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4001 book	—	5/10
−2754 books	—	4/10
−1581 book	—	4/10
−1143 books	−1143 books	4/10
−1144 books	−1152 books	4/10
+1754 books	—	3/10
+3304 books	—	2/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 28.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 28.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 28.5	Under 28.5
FanDuel9 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Pinnacle10 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Bovada10 min ago	−115	−115
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

28.5

No move since first seen