Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons · RB · #7

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under120.5

Under 120.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1145 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 120.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

vs NO, 2026-01-04: 43, hit, 18 carries + targets
at PIT, 2026-09-13: 173, missed, 31 carries + targets
vs CAR, 2026-09-20: 81, hit, 20 carries + targets
at GB, 2026-09-24: 213, missed, 31 carries + targets
at NO, 2026-10-05: 147, missed, 21 carries + targets
vs BAL, 2026-10-11: 118, hit, 24 carries + targets
vs CHI, 2026-10-18: 53, hit, 11 carries + targets
vs SF, 2026-10-25: 122, missed, 25 carries + targets
at TB, 2026-11-01: 76, hit, 20 carries + targets
vs CIN, 2026-11-08: 147, missed, 26 carries + targets

Under hitMissedThe 120.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 36.9–166.9 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 120.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. led ATL in passing in 7 of 9 games this season
Also led: Cooper Rush 2. Under 120.5 with Penix at quarterback: 9 of 19; with another ATL quarterback: 18 of 32
Defense vs running backs
KC allow 115.8 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 22nd most of 32
8 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 23.7 carries + targets · 2026: 23.2 (9 games)
Target share: 15% last 3 games · 16% over 9 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs CIN

Splits

Under 120.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against KC in his last 10; Under 120.5 hit in 1 of 1 against KC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs KC

Rush+Rec Yards: 52 in 18 carries + targets, Sep 22, 2024 (home)

Under 120.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against KC on record

L10 · Under 120.5

Average: 117.3; −3.2 vs line
Median: 120; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −114

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −114, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2863 books	—	4/10
−1155 books	−1144 books	5/10
+1003 books	—	6/10
+2403 books	—	8/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 120.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 120.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 120.5	Under 120.5
betPARX5 min ago	−115	−113Best
BetRivers5 min ago	−117	−114
FanDuel4 min ago	−114	−114
Bovada5 min ago	−110Best	−120
Bally Bet5 min ago	−115	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:12 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

120.5

118.5 → 120.5 since first seen