Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons · RB · #7

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Under 3.5 Receptions, typical price +1105 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

vs NO, 2026-01-04: 3, hit, 3 targets
at PIT, 2026-09-13: 8, missed, 10 targets
vs CAR, 2026-09-20: 3, hit, 4 targets
at GB, 2026-09-24: 2, hit, 2 targets
at NO, 2026-10-05: 1, hit, 2 targets
vs BAL, 2026-10-11: 4, missed, 7 targets
vs CHI, 2026-10-18: 2, hit, 2 targets
vs SF, 2026-10-25: 5, missed, 5 targets
at TB, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 1 targets
vs CIN, 2026-11-08: 6, missed, 7 targets

Under hitMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. led ATL in passing in 7 of 9 games this season
Also led: Cooper Rush 2. Under 3.5 with Penix at quarterback: 9 of 19; with another ATL quarterback: 17 of 32
Defense vs running backs
KC allow 4.8 receptions a game to running backs: 10th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 4.3 targets · 2026: 4.4 (9 games)
Target share: 15% last 3 games · 16% over 9 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs CIN

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against KC in his last 10; Under 3.5 hit in 1 of 1 against KC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs KC

Receptions: 2 in 2 targets, Sep 22, 2024 (home)

Under 3.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against KC on record

L10 · Under 3.5

Average: 3.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 3; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 48%; at +110
Books’ fair: 44%; margin removed
Our chance: 49%; estimate · fair +103

Research, not a pick. At +115 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair +103, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−16674 books	—	2/10
−3754 books	—	4/10
−1415 books	+1102 books	6/10
+1555 books	−1742 books	7/10
+3104 books	—	8/10
+6004 books	—	9/10
+13004 books	—	9/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
Bovada18 min ago	−150	+115Best
betPARX18 min ago	−141Best	+110
Bally Bet18 min ago	−141Best	—
BetRivers18 min ago	−141Best	—
FanDuel18 min ago	−166	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:37 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

4.5 → 3.5 since first seen