Will Richard

Golden State Warriors · G · #3

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Rebounds, typical price +1076 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

35%7 of 20L20 · Without Butler

Over 2.5 Rebounds cleared in 7 of 20 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).

at WSH, 2026-03-16: 3, cleared, 32 min
at BOS, 2026-03-18: 2, missed, 25 min
at DET, 2026-03-20: 1, missed, 28 min
at ATL, 2026-03-21: 5, cleared, 31 min
at DAL, 2026-03-23: 0, missed, 12 min
vs BKN, 2026-03-25: 2, missed, 20 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-27: 2, missed, 25 min
vs SA, 2026-04-01: 4, cleared, 26 min
vs CLE, 2026-04-02: 2, missed, 17 min
vs HOU, 2026-04-05: 0, missed, 6 min
at SAC, 2026-04-10: 2, missed, 3 min
at LAC, 2026-04-12: 2, missed, 20 min
at LAL, 2026-10-21: 5, cleared, 20 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 0, missed, 3 min
at PHX, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 31 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 0, missed, 3 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 3, cleared, 23 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 3, cleared, 13 min
vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 0, missed, 22 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 5, cleared, 28 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 2.5 without him: 19 of 44; with him: 11 of 33 (77 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 2.5 without him: 8 of 16; with him: 4 of 13 (29 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 2.5 without him: 10 of 24; with him: 20 of 53 (77 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
MIA allow 18.1 rebounds a game to guards: 5th most of 30
8 games

Splits

Over 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 20; Over 2.5 cleared in 2 of 2 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L20

Stephen CurryG
Yaxel LendeborgF
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Rebounds: 3 in 26 min, Jan 19 (home)

Over 2.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against MIA on record

L20 · Without Butler · Over 2.5

Average: 2.1; −0.5 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 35%; 7 of 20
Price implies: 48%; at +107
Books’ fair: 45%; margin removed
Minutes: 19.4; 20 games · 20 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 2.5 45%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−22001 book	—	14/20
−2404 books	—	13/20
+1076 books	−1504 books	7/20
+2405 books	—	4/20
+4805 books	—	3/20
+10202 books	—	0/20
+18801 book	—	0/20

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bally Bet3 min ago	+110Best	—
betPARX1 min ago	+110Best	−150
BetRivers2 min ago	+110Best	−150
DraftKings3 min ago	+107	—
FanDuel1 min ago	+106	−140
Pinnacle3 min ago	+102	−136Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:55 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: −180 → +107 since first seen

Will Richard's full game log and splits