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Will Richard

Golden State Warriors · G · #3

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM
OverUnder8.5
Over 8.5 Pts+Reb, typical price −1056 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Over 8.5

45%9 of 20L20 · Without Butler

Over 8.5 Pts+Reb cleared in 9 of 20 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).

  1. at WSH, 2026-03-16: 3, missed, 32 min
  2. at BOS, 2026-03-18: 9, cleared, 25 min
  3. at DET, 2026-03-20: 12, cleared, 28 min
  4. at ATL, 2026-03-21: 14, cleared, 31 min
  5. at DAL, 2026-03-23: 12, cleared, 12 min
  6. vs BKN, 2026-03-25: 5, missed, 20 min
  7. vs WSH, 2026-03-27: 10, cleared, 25 min
  8. vs SA, 2026-04-01: 6, missed, 26 min
  9. vs CLE, 2026-04-02: 2, missed, 17 min
  10. vs HOU, 2026-04-05: 0, missed, 6 min
  11. at SAC, 2026-04-10: 2, missed, 3 min
  12. at LAC, 2026-04-12: 2, missed, 20 min
  13. at LAL, 2026-10-21: 13, cleared, 20 min
  14. vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 0, missed, 3 min
  15. at PHX, 2026-10-24: 11, cleared, 31 min
  16. at DEN, 2026-10-26: 0, missed, 3 min
  17. at MIN, 2026-10-28: 9, cleared, 23 min
  18. vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 6, missed, 13 min
  19. vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 3, missed, 22 min
  20. vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 11, cleared, 28 min
ClearedMissedThe 8.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

What's different today

Over 8.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TodayTeammate out

    Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)

    Over 8.5 without him: 19 of 44; with him: 15 of 33 (77 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)

    Over 8.5 without him: 7 of 16; with him: 6 of 13 (29 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Moses Moody: Out (knee)

    Over 8.5 without him: 10 of 24; with him: 24 of 53 (77 games as teammates)

  • Minutes

    Last 5: 17.8 min · 2026–27: 17.9 (8 games)

Splits

Over 8.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 20; Over 8.5 cleared in 0 of 2 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 8.5 · L20

  • Stephen CurryG

  • Yaxel LendeborgF

  • Jimmy Butler IIIFOut

  • Kristaps PorzingisCOut

  • Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Pts+Reb: 8 in 26 min, Jan 19 (home)

Over 8.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against MIA on record

L20 · Without Butler · Over 8.5

Average
6.5
−2 vs line
Median
6
−2.5 vs line
Hit rate
45%
9 of 20
Price implies
51%
at −105
Books’ fair
48%
margin removed
Minutes
19.4
20 games · 20 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 8.5 48%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Butler
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL20
−4554 books—12/20
−2201 book+1651 book9/20
−1501 book+1151 book9/20
−1056 books−1304 books9/20
+1305 books—7/20
+5252 books—0/20
+16402 books—0/20
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 8.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 8.5 Pts+Reb, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 8.5Under 8.5
DraftKings3 min ago+100Best−131
Bally Bet3 min ago−105—
betPARX2 min ago−105−130
BetRivers2 min ago−105—
Bovada2 min ago−105−125
FanDuel2 min ago−114−114Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 4:50 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

8.5

9.5 → 8.5 since first seen

Will Richard's full game log and splits