Will Richard

Golden State Warriors · G · #3

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Over 5.5 Points, typical price −1245 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

45%9 of 20L20 · Without Butler

Over 5.5 Points cleared in 9 of 20 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).

at WSH, 2026-03-16: 0, missed, 32 min
at BOS, 2026-03-18: 7, cleared, 25 min
at DET, 2026-03-20: 11, cleared, 28 min
at ATL, 2026-03-21: 9, cleared, 31 min
at DAL, 2026-03-23: 12, cleared, 12 min
vs BKN, 2026-03-25: 3, missed, 20 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-27: 8, cleared, 25 min
vs SA, 2026-04-01: 2, missed, 26 min
vs CLE, 2026-04-02: 0, missed, 17 min
vs HOU, 2026-04-05: 0, missed, 6 min
at SAC, 2026-04-10: 0, missed, 3 min
at LAC, 2026-04-12: 0, missed, 20 min
at LAL, 2026-10-21: 8, cleared, 20 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 0, missed, 3 min
at PHX, 2026-10-24: 11, cleared, 31 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 0, missed, 3 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 6, cleared, 23 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 3, missed, 13 min
vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 3, missed, 22 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 6, cleared, 28 min

ClearedMissedThe 5.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

What's different today

Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 5.5 without him: 19 of 44; with him: 17 of 33 (77 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs guards
MIA allow 69.0 points a game to guards: 2nd most of 30
8 games
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 5.5 without him: 7 of 16; with him: 6 of 13 (29 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 5.5 without him: 10 of 24; with him: 26 of 53 (77 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 5.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 20; Over 5.5 cleared in 0 of 2 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 5.5 · L20

Stephen CurryG
Yaxel LendeborgF
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Points: 5 in 26 min, Jan 19 (home)

Over 5.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against MIA on record

L20 · Without Butler · Over 5.5

Average: 4.5; −1 vs line
Median: 3; −2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 45%; 9 of 20
Price implies: 55%; at −124
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Minutes: 19.4; 20 games · 20 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 5.5 52%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2753 books	—	9/20
−2402 books	—	9/20
−1245 books	−1093 books	9/20
+1554 books	—	6/20
+2856 books	—	3/20
+4804 books	—	1/20
+12403 books	—	0/20

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
DraftKings10 min ago	−122Best	—
Bally Bet10 min ago	−124	—
betPARX10 min ago	−124	−109
BetRivers10 min ago	−124	−109
FanDuel5 min ago	−136	+102Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:24 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

6.5 → 5.5 since first seen

Will Richard's full game log and splits