Tyrese Maxey

Philadelphia 76ers · G · #0

PHI @ DET · Tomorrow 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −1392 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Dominick Barlow: Out (back)
Under 1.5 without him: 12 of 21; with him: 36 of 68 (89 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
DET allow 3.6 steals a game to guards: 24th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 36.4 min · 2026–27: 37.5 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs CHI

50%5 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 5 of his last 10 games (1 of 3 on the road).

vs NY, 2026-05-08: 1, hit, 44 min
vs NY, 2026-05-10: 0, hit, 33 min
at NY, 2026-10-20: 3, missed, 40 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-22: 2, missed, 42 min
vs MIL, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 36 min
vs DET, 2026-10-25: 3, missed, 34 min
at IND, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 36 min
vs NY, 2026-10-30: 1, hit, 38 min
at CHA, 2026-10-31: 2, missed, 38 min
vs CHI, 2026-11-02: 2, missed, 36 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 steals.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Joel EmbiidC
Jaylen BrownG
LeBron JamesF
Dominick BarlowFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the 76ers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Steals: 3 in 34 min, Oct 25 (home)

Under 1.5 hit in 2 of 9 games against DET on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −139
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −138

Research, not a pick. At −136 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −138, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4582 books	—	2/10
+1042 books	−1392 books	5/10
+3222 books	—	8/10
+8602 books	—	10/10
+18042 books	—	10/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel6 min ago	+102	−136Best
DraftKings14 min ago	+107Best	−142
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:43 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under −136 → −139 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Tyrese Maxey's full game log and splits