Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #25

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −2102 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

90%9 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 9 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at NY, 2026-03-24: 1, hit, 36 min
at POR, 2026-04-02: 1, hit, 36 min
at SAC, 2026-04-03: 0, hit, 32 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 0, hit, 32 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 1, hit, 31 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 37 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 2, missed, 30 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 1, hit, 32 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 40 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 8 of 14; with him: 34 of 59 (73 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIN allow 3.3 steals a game to forwards: 13th most of 30
9 games
Minutes
Last 5: 33.6 min · 2025–26: 35.5 (66 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH
III sat the last game (Nov 4)

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 4 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

III didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; steals the last time III faced them: 0 (Feb 6)

Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against MIN on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 0.8; −0.7 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 90%; 9 of 10
Price implies: 68%; at −210
Books’ fair: 63%; margin removed
Our chance: 67%; estimate · fair −199

Research, not a pick. At −210 the price is worse than our fair −199, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3302 books	—	3/10
+1542 books	−2101 book	9/10
+4702 books	—	10/10
+12002 books	—	10/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel5 min ago	+154	−210Best
DraftKings11 min ago	+157Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:50 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under: −205 → −210 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Trey Murphy III's full game log and splits