Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #25

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Rebounds, typical price −1256 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Rebounds cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

at NY, 2026-03-24: 6, cleared, 36 min
at POR, 2026-04-02: 8, cleared, 36 min
at SAC, 2026-04-03: 4, missed, 32 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 4, missed, 32 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 6, cleared, 31 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 6, cleared, 37 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 1, missed, 30 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 5, cleared, 32 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 5, cleared, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 5, cleared, 40 min

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2.2–8.9 rebounds.

What's different today

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 4.5 without him: 11 of 14; with him: 40 of 59 (73 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIN allow 15.1 rebounds a game to forwards: 27th most of 30
9 games
Minutes
Last 5: 33.6 min · 2025–26: 35.5 (66 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH
III sat the last game (Nov 4)

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 4.5 cleared in 3 of 4 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 4.5 · L10

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

III didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; rebounds the last time III faced them: 6 (Feb 6)

Over 4.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 5; +0.5 vs line
Median: 5; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −156

Research, not a pick. At −122 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −156, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
+1031 book	—	9/10
−6255 books	—	9/10
−2656 books	+1901 book	9/10
−1256 books	−1065 books	7/10
+1506 books	−2001 book	4/10
+2655 books	—	1/10
+4505 books	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
Bally Bet6 min ago	−122Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	−122Best	−110
BetRivers5 min ago	−122Best	−110
Bovada6 min ago	−125	−105Best
FanDuel5 min ago	−125	−106
DraftKings6 min ago	−126	−105Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Over: −120 → −125 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Trey Murphy III's full game log and splits