Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #25

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under22.5

Over 22.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, typical price −1281 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 22.5 Pts+Reb+Ast cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

at NY, 2026-03-24: 24, cleared, 36 min
at POR, 2026-04-02: 29, cleared, 36 min
at SAC, 2026-04-03: 21, missed, 32 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 16, missed, 32 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 18, missed, 31 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 36, cleared, 37 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 10, missed, 30 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 27, cleared, 32 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 25, cleared, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 28, cleared, 40 min

ClearedMissedThe 22.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 14–39.5 pts+reb+ast.

What's different today

Over 22.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 22.5 without him: 12 of 14; with him: 48 of 59 (73 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIN allow 59.8 points + rebounds + assists a game to forwards: 26th most of 30
9 games
Minutes
Last 5: 33.6 min · 2025–26: 35.5 (66 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH
III sat the last game (Nov 4)

Splits

Over 22.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 22.5 cleared in 3 of 4 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 22.5 · L10

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

III didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; pts+reb+ast the last time III faced them: 37 (Feb 6)

Over 22.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 22.5

Average: 23.4; +0.9 vs line
Median: 24.5; +2 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −128
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −152

Research, not a pick. At −128 the price beats our fair −152, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1281 book	−1041 book	6/10
−1111 book	−1181 book	6/10
+1111 book	—	5/10
+16401 book	—	0/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 22.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 22.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 22.5	Under 22.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−128Best	−104Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:59 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

22.5

−125 → −128 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Trey Murphy III's full game log and splits