Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #25

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under7.5

Over 7.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1256 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 7.5 Reb+Ast cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

at NY, 2026-03-24: 8, cleared, 36 min
at POR, 2026-04-02: 10, cleared, 36 min
at SAC, 2026-04-03: 8, cleared, 32 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 5, missed, 32 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 9, cleared, 31 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 10, cleared, 37 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 4, missed, 30 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 8, cleared, 32 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 10, cleared, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 10, cleared, 40 min

ClearedMissedThe 7.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 5.3–13 reb+ast.

What's different today

Over 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 7.5 without him: 12 of 14; with him: 38 of 59 (73 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 33.6 min · 2025–26: 35.5 (66 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH
III sat the last game (Nov 4)
Game lines
NO +4.5 · total 230.5 (6 sportsbooks)
NO's games this season closed at 236.9 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 7.5 cleared in 3 of 4 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 7.5 · L10

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

III didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; reb+ast the last time III faced them: 11 (Feb 6)

Over 7.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 7.5

Average: 8.2; +0.7 vs line
Median: 8.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −162

Research, not a pick. At −121 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −162, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8354 books	—	9/10
−2151 book	+1601 book	8/10
−1256 books	−1054 books	8/10
+1301 book	−1701 book	5/10
+2104 books	—	4/10
+5001 book	—	0/10
+18001 book	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
Bally Bet5 min ago	−121Best	—
betPARX6 min ago	−121Best	−112
BetRivers3 min ago	−121Best	—
Bovada4 min ago	−125	−105
DraftKings5 min ago	−131	+100Best
FanDuel4 min ago	−132	+100Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:55 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

Over: −128 → −125 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Trey Murphy III's full game log and splits