Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #25

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under19.5

Over 19.5 Pts+Reb, typical price −1322 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 19.5 Pts+Reb cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

at NY, 2026-03-24: 22, cleared, 36 min
at POR, 2026-04-02: 27, cleared, 36 min
at SAC, 2026-04-03: 17, missed, 32 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 15, missed, 32 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 15, missed, 31 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 32, cleared, 37 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 7, missed, 30 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 24, cleared, 32 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 20, cleared, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 23, cleared, 40 min

ClearedMissedThe 19.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 11–35.3 pts+reb.

What's different today

Over 19.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 19.5 without him: 12 of 14; with him: 48 of 59 (73 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 33.6 min · 2025–26: 35.5 (66 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH
III sat the last game (Nov 4)
Game lines
NO +4.5 · total 229.5 (4 sportsbooks)
NO's games this season closed at 236.9 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 19.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 19.5 cleared in 3 of 4 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 19.5 · L10

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

III didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; pts+reb the last time III faced them: 32 (Feb 6)

Over 19.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 19.5

Average: 20.2; +0.7 vs line
Median: 21; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −132
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −145

Research, not a pick. At −120 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −145, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−35001 book	—	9/10
−4521 book	—	9/10
−1322 books	−1101 book	6/10
−1061 book	−1241 book	5/10
+2121 book	—	2/10
+5671 book	—	1/10
+13601 book	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 19.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 19.5 Pts+Reb, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 19.5	Under 19.5
FanDuel5 min ago	−120Best	−110Best
DraftKings11 min ago	−132	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:50 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

19.5

−114 → −132 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Trey Murphy III's full game log and splits