Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #25

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under18.5

Over 18.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1086 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 18.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

at NY, 2026-03-24: 18, missed, 36 min
at POR, 2026-04-02: 21, cleared, 36 min
at SAC, 2026-04-03: 17, missed, 32 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 12, missed, 32 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 12, missed, 31 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 30, cleared, 37 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 9, missed, 30 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 22, cleared, 32 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 20, cleared, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 23, cleared, 40 min

ClearedMissedThe 18.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 9.6–32.9 pts+ast.

What's different today

Over 18.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 18.5 without him: 11 of 14; with him: 48 of 59 (73 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 33.6 min · 2025–26: 35.5 (66 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH
III sat the last game (Nov 4)
Game lines
NO +4.5 · total 231.5 (8 sportsbooks)
NO's games this season closed at 236.9 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 18.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 18.5 cleared in 3 of 4 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 18.5 · L10

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

III didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; pts+ast the last time III faced them: 31 (Feb 6)

Over 18.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 18.5

Average: 18.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 19; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −108
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −128

Research, not a pick. At −104 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −128, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−17401 book	—	9/10
−2754 books	—	7/10
−1451 book	+1101 book	6/10
−1086 books	−1274 books	5/10
+1165 books	−1451 book	5/10
+3104 books	—	1/10
+8801 book	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 18.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 18.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 18.5	Under 18.5
FanDuel1 min ago	−104Best	−128
Bally Bet12 min ago	−108	—
betPARX1 min ago	−108	−127
BetRivers2 min ago	−108	—
Bovada12 min ago	−115	−115
DraftKings12 min ago	−117	−113Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:55 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

18.5

Over: −102 → −108 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Trey Murphy III's full game log and splits