Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #25

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Assists, typical price −1782 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Assists cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at NY, 2026-03-24: 2, missed, 36 min
at POR, 2026-04-02: 2, missed, 36 min
at SAC, 2026-04-03: 4, cleared, 32 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 1, missed, 32 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 3, cleared, 31 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 4, cleared, 37 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 3, cleared, 30 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 32 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 5, cleared, 29 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 5, cleared, 40 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–6 assists.

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 2.5 without him: 14 of 14; with him: 40 of 59 (73 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIN allow 6.7 assists a game to forwards: 25th most of 30
9 games
Minutes
Last 5: 33.6 min · 2025–26: 35.5 (66 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH
III sat the last game (Nov 4)

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 3 of 4 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L10

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

III didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; assists the last time III faced them: 5 (Feb 6)

Over 2.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 3.2; +0.7 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −178
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −190

Research, not a pick. At −174 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −190, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5301 book	—	9/10
−1782 books	+1312 books	7/10
+1362 books	pick'em only	4/10
+2951 book	—	2/10
+6502 books	—	0/10
+13001 book	—	0/10
+22002 books	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings10 min ago	−174Best	+131
FanDuel4 min ago	−178	+132Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:50 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

−182 → −178 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Trey Murphy III's full game log and splits