Trevon Brazile

Denver Nuggets · F · #7

TOR @ DEN · Tomorrow 9:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Over 5.5 Points, typical price +1021 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Spencer Jones: Out (hamstring)
Over 5.5 without him: 5 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
TOR allow 38.1 points a game to forwards: 25th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 22.8 min · 2026–27: 22 (6 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs POR

83%5 of 6L6

Over 5.5 Points cleared in 5 of his last 6 games (3 of 3 at home).

at OKC, 2026-10-22: 4, missed, 18 min
vs NO, 2026-10-24: 17, cleared, 28 min
vs GS, 2026-10-26: 6, cleared, 17 min
at NO, 2026-10-28: 11, cleared, 32 min
at PHX, 2026-10-30: 6, cleared, 19 min
vs POR, 2026-11-02: 6, cleared, 18 min

ClearedMissedThe 5.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 2.6–18 points.

Splits

Over 5.5 · L6 · counts, not in order

No game against TOR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 5.5 · L6

Nikola JokicC
Jamal MurrayG
Aaron GordonF
Spencer JonesFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Nuggets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Brazile didn't play the Mar 20 meeting

L6 · Over 5.5

Average: 8.3; +2.8 vs line
Median: 6; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 83%; 5 of 6
Price implies: 50%; at +102
Books’ fair: 46%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −156

Research, not a pick. At +102 the price beats our fair −156, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L6

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L6
−1481 book	—	5/6
+1021 book	−1361 book	5/6
+4401 book	—	2/6
+17001 book	—	1/6

Compare 1 sportsbook at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
FanDuel5 min ago	+102Best	−136Best

Prices as of 10:33 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Trevon Brazile's full game log and splits