Trevon Brazile

Denver Nuggets · F · #7

TOR @ DEN · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Rebounds, typical price +1162 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Spencer Jones: Out (hamstring)
Over 4.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
TOR allow 15.4 rebounds a game to forwards: 26th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 22.8 min · 2026–27: 22 (6 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs POR

67%4 of 6L6

Over 4.5 Rebounds cleared in 4 of his last 6 games (2 of 3 at home).

at OKC, 2026-10-22: 12, cleared, 18 min
vs NO, 2026-10-24: 9, cleared, 28 min
vs GS, 2026-10-26: 1, missed, 17 min
at NO, 2026-10-28: 8, cleared, 32 min
at PHX, 2026-10-30: 3, missed, 19 min
vs POR, 2026-11-02: 5, cleared, 18 min

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0.3–10.8 rebounds.

Splits

Over 4.5 · L6 · counts, not in order

No game against TOR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 4.5 · L6

Nikola JokicC
Jamal MurrayG
Aaron GordonF
Spencer JonesFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Nuggets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Brazile didn't play the Mar 20 meeting

L6 · Over 4.5

Average: 6.3; +1.8 vs line
Median: 6.5; +2 vs line
Hit rate: 67%; 4 of 6
Price implies: 46%; at +116
Books’ fair: 43%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −112

Research, not a pick. At +123 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −112, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L6

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L6
−3671 book	—	5/6
−1722 books	—	4/6
+1162 books	−1541 book	4/6
+2152 books	—	3/6
+4131 book	—	3/6
+6802 books	—	3/6
+12001 book	—	2/6

Compare 2 sportsbooks at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
DraftKings5 min ago	+123Best	—
FanDuel5 min ago	+116	−154Best

Prices as of 12:24 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

+112 → +116 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Trevon Brazile's full game log and splits