Scoot Henderson

Portland Trail Blazers · G · #00

POR @ DENTrail Blazers @ Nuggets · Mon, Nov 2 9:00 PM ET

The line

Over 0.5 Steals

−2454 sportsbooksbest −168

Game log

Over 0.5

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 on the road).

at SA: 1, cleared
at SA: 1, cleared
vs SA: 1, cleared
vs SA: 1, cleared
at SA: 0, missed
vs PHX: 1, cleared
at SAC: 0, missed
at LAL: 0, missed
vs MEM: 0, missed
at UTAH: 3, cleared

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 steals.

Home and away

L10 · Over 0.5

Home

75%

3 of 4

Awaytonight

50%

3 of 6

L10 · Over 0.5 Steals

Average: 0.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 71%; −245, 4 sportsbooks
Market’s fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −188

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Research, not a pick. At −168 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −188, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings5 hr ago	−168Best	+126
Bally Bet4 hr ago	−245	—
betPARX4 hr ago	−245	+175Best
BetRivers4 hr ago	−245	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price