Rudy Gobert

Minnesota Timberwolves · C · #27

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −1953 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

83%5 of 6L20 · Without Edwards

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 5 of 6 games without Anthony Edwards (his last 20 games).

at DEN, 2026-04-18: 1, cleared, 38 min (not counted)
at DEN, 2026-04-20: 2, cleared, 28 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-04-23: 0, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-04-25: 2, cleared, 36 min (not counted)
at DEN, 2026-04-27: 2, cleared, 29 min
vs DEN, 2026-04-30: 1, cleared, 42 min
at SA, 2026-05-04: 4, cleared, 30 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-06: 0, missed, 28 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-08: 0, missed, 31 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-10: 0, missed, 30 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-12: 2, cleared, 23 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-15: 0, missed, 22 min (not counted)
at MIA, 2026-10-21: 0, missed, 33 min (not counted)
at ORL, 2026-10-23: 0, missed, 30 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-10-25: 0, missed, 31 min (not counted)
at CLE, 2026-10-26: 1, cleared, 36 min (not counted)
vs GS, 2026-10-28: 1, cleared, 20 min
vs LAC, 2026-10-30: 1, cleared, 30 min
vs MIL, 2026-11-02: 0, missed, 31 min
at HOU, 2026-11-04: 1, cleared, 33 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 steals.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Anthony Edwards: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 17 of 24; with him: 38 of 82 (106 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Out (hip)
Over 0.5 without him: 26 of 46; with him: 29 of 60 (106 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (achilles)
Over 0.5 without him: 8 of 16; with him: 47 of 90 (106 games as teammates)
Defense vs centers
NO allow 0.4 steals a game to centers: 26th most of 30
8 games

Splits

Over 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against NO in his last 20; Over 0.5 cleared in 3 of 6 against NO on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

Anthony EdwardsGOut
LaMelo BallG
Jaden McDanielsF
Terrence Shannon Jr.GOut
Donte DiVincenzoGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Timberwolves count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NO

Gobert didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; steals the last time Gobert faced them: 3 (Feb 6)

Over 0.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against NO on record

L20 · Without Edwards · Over 0.5

Average: 1; +0.5 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 83%; 5 of 6
Price implies: 66%; at −195
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −140

Research, not a pick. At −195 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −140, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Edwards

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	−1953 books	+1401 book	5/6
	+2253 books	—	1/6

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet7 min ago	−195Best	—
betPARX4 min ago	−195Best	+140Best
BetRivers3 min ago	−195Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:37 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: −210 → −195 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Rudy Gobert's full game log and splits