Rudy Gobert
MIN @ HOU · Tomorrow 8:30 PM
What's different tonight
Under 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightTeammate out
Anthony Edwards: Out (knee)
Under 21.5 without him: 7 of 23; with him: 40 of 82 (105 games as teammates)
TonightDefense vs centers
HOU allow 18.1 points + rebounds + assists a game to centers: 28th most of 30
8 games
Teammate out
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (achilles)
Under 21.5 without him: 9 of 15; with him: 38 of 90 (105 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 29.6 min · 2025–26: 31.3 (88 games)
Game log against Under 21.5
67%4 of 6L20 · Without Edwards
Under 21.5 Pts+Reb+Ast hit in 4 of 6 games without Anthony Edwards (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 9.2–29 pts+reb+ast.
Splits
Under 21.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderNo game against HOU in his last 20; Under 21.5 hit in 1 of 5 against HOU on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 21.5 · L20Anthony EdwardsGOut
LaMelo BallG
Jaden McDanielsF
Donte DiVincenzoGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Timberwolves count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs HOU
Gobert didn't play the Apr 10 meeting; pts+reb+ast the last time Gobert faced them: 29 (Mar 25)
Under 21.5 hit in 1 of 5 games against HOU on record
L20 · Without Edwards · Under 21.5
- Average
- 19.3
- −2.2 vs line
- Median
- 20.5
- −1 vs line
- Hit rate
- 67%
- 4 of 6
- Price implies
- 55%
- at −120
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 56%
- estimate · fair −128
Research, not a pick. At −120 the price beats our fair −128, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L20 · Without Edwards| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −7301 book | — | 2/6 | |
| −1931 book | — | 2/6 | |
| −1172 books | −1201 book | 4/6 | |
| +1571 book | — | 4/6 | |
| +4371 book | — | 5/6 | |
| +11801 book | — | 6/6 |
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 21.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 21.5 | Under 21.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel3 min ago | −110Best | −120Best |
| DraftKings14 min ago | −124 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 10:04 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
21.5Under −108 → −120 since first seen